What to Make of the Pac-10

With just a few conference games left to play, it is simple to say that any one of five different teams could be playing in Pasadena come New Years.  Before Saturday many believed Oregon was on pace to run away with the conference, and then they forgot how to play defense and Stanford ran all over them.  USC followed their embarrassing Eugene performance by beating a pitiful Arizona State just 14-9, so here we find ourselves with nothing solved going down the stretch of conference play.  I’ve broken down the five teams capable of winning the conference this season with their best and worst-case scenarios, as well as a look at their upcoming schedule and tiebreakers.

Oregon (7-2, 5-1)

I still believe the Ducks are the best team in the conference, but they still face some deceivingly tough match-ups which stand between them and the Rose Bowl.

Remaining Schedule: ASU, at Arizona, OSU

Best Case: (3-0) Oregon is fully capable of winning out against this schedule, especially after the wake-up call they just received down in Palo Alto.  They will be motivated by revenge traveling to Tucson after what happened there two seasons ago, and it is hard to believe they look past the Beavers on national television.

Worst Case: (1-2) Maybe Oregon’s defense really is as bad as it looked Saturday, and their success has simply been the product of a weak conference schedule thus far.  Duck fans are hoping that the injuries in the secondary aren’t catching up with the team, but maybe their third and fourth string corners just aren’t capable of matching up with the conference’s top receivers.

Arizona (6-2, 4-1)

After week one I had the Wildcats pegged as my sleeper in the conference, but I never could have imagined they would be this good.  Nick Foles is the real deal, and if not for a  bogus call against the Huskies, this team could be running away with the conference.

Remaining Schedule: at Cal, Oregon, at ASU, at USC

Best Case: (4-0) This team has a defense capable of winning the conference, and if the offense is able to keep up, they can play with anyone.  Definitely the toughest schedule of any of the remaining teams, but I see no reason to believe they couldn’t win out.

Worst Case: (1-3) With no gimmes left on the schedule, Arizona could very well be the product of an easy schedule thus far.  Their only big win has been against Oregon State, and even in that case they needed a couple of key mistakes from the Beavers to win.  Ducks and Trojans both come with all the motivation in the world and roll the Wildcats right out of contention.

USC (7-2, 4-2)

Who are these Trojans? Thought to be one of the best in the country, and then Halloween in Eugene happened.  Arizona State the next weekend, a cake walk right? Try a 14-9 victory over one of the worst teams in the conference.  The team definitely has talent and a coach that knows how to win, but I think this seasons’ team is showing just how far those to can go.

Remaining Schedule: Stanford, UCLA, Arizona

Best Case: (3-0) All three games are at home, and if USC is as good as people think, they shouldn’t have any problems.  Maybe they slept through the Sun Devil game because ASU just isn’t very good, and they’re planning on getting up for the three remaining games.  These last few weeks will definitely show us what Matt Barkley is made of.

Worst Case: (1-2) At least the Trojans won’t play anywhere on the road to hear the “OVER-RATED” chants come pouring down.  Stanford and UCLA know how to ruin Trojan teams, and while UCLA isn’t exactly a great team, Stanford is a matches up well against the athletic Trojans.  The game against Arizona could be for the conference title (or at least a share of it), and Arizona is more than capable of going toe to toe with USC.

Stanford (6-3, 5-2)

After losses against Oregon State and Arizona, the experts had all but written off the Cardinal, but after this weekend’s performance against Oregon, they’re right back in the running.  Sure the overall record isn’t nearly as impressive as the teams above, but Jim Harbaugh is a great coach capable of surprising a lot of people.

Remaining Schedule: at USC, California, Notre Dame

Best Case: (2-0) The Cardinal find themselves with the advantage of having the least conference games left on the slate, which could help if teams start playing themselves out of contention.  The Cardinal hold the tiebreaker with Oregon, but not Oregon State or Arizona, which could be detrimental in the long run.

Worst Case: (0-2) USC comes in motivated by their loss a couple years ago, and the Cardinal fall apart in the Big Game.  Maybe the Cardinal’s game against the Ducks was a fluke, and the rest of their season was the real indicator, where they seemed nothing more than above average.

Oregon State (6-3, 4-2)

The Beavers have looked excellent lately, with only a close loss against USC in the last five weeks.  If Jaquizz Rodgers can stay healthy and on the field, the Beavers could find themselves in a tie for the conference title.

Remaining Schedule: Washington, at Washington State, at Oregon

Best Case: (3-0) After getting past the Huskies, the Beavers have two bye weeks in a row before traveling to Eugene (okay, they have to play the Cougars, but come on).  The Ducks ruined the Beavers’ Rose Bowl hopes last season, and the Beavers could be repaying the favor come December 3^rd.

Worse Case: (2-1) It is hard to imagine the Beavers losing two of these games, but I just cannot see them traveling into Eugene and beating the Ducks.  Jaquizz Rodgers carries most of the load for the Beavers, and a small back like him will struggle to stay healthy for an entire season his whole career.

Predictions

I have the Ducks winning out and remaining alone at the top of the standings come mid-December.  If the Ducks slip up to the Beavers or Wildcats, there could easily be a tie with three or more teams for the conference title in one of two different scenarios (scenarios I feel are completely realistic, and not far-fetched):

Scenario #1: Oregon loses to Arizona and Oregon State, and USC beats Arizona (Arizona, Oregon State, USC all tie)

Scenario #2: Oregon beats Arizona but loses to Oregon State, while USC loses to Stanford and Arizona. (Oregon, Arizona, Oregon State, and Stanford all tie)

Scenario #3: Oregon beats Arizona, but loses to Oregon State while USC beats Stanford and Arizona (Oregon, Oregon State, and USC all tie)

I am sure there are a few more scenarios I am missing, but needless to say, the next few weeks will be as speculative and exciting as ever in the Pac-10.